COVID: Weibull-ing Past the Graveyard
COVID: Weibull-ing Past the Graveyard
Why Is The Left Always "On to the Next?" Numbers Say That's How You Win!
Why is the Left always "changing the subject" and "on the the next"? Because the vast majority of their malwords have betas greater than 1.0, meaning shorter value lifecycles, narrower opportunity windows, and increased risk of failure over time. So in this case -- whether they know it or not-- they are following the science, and it is paying off.
Last month marked two years since the official WHO declaration of the COVID-19 as a pandemic, and twenty-seven months since the CDC began providing statistical updates on the COVID emergency.
While governing bodies are reluctant to admit it, declining COVID case numbers and fatalities are telling us that the pandemic is finally over.
Malwords.org has also been following the rise and fall of COVID over the same period, tracking frequencies and volumes of keywords used in reporting on the disease and its spread.
In this article, we'll share:
remarkable insights into COVID malwords using a well-known statistics tool called Weibull Analysis,
discovery of some very common sense numbers behind the Left's continual "change the subject" / "on to the next" strategy, and
innovative and alternate approaches to stopping the madness.
Turns out it's built into the model.
All About Malwords
Malwords are keywords weaponized for information warfare. They function within public discourse as intellectual malware, verbal viruses designed to spread quickly for the purposes of a) silencing dissent through control of language, narrative, and speech, b) increasing public tolerance for government-sanctioned atrocity and c) emboldening officials to commit acts of atrocity.
Malword strength is measured by their frequency of appearance per million words in the published corpus, and expressed in words per million (WPM) linguistic units (words, numbers, acronyms, symbols, etc.) The average person processes 20,000-30,000 LU's a day, so if a particular malword shows up in the the news corpus at a frequency of over 50 WPM, chances of hearing that term at least once in the daily consumption of news are high.
Campaigns typically consist of one or two thematic Primary (Tier-1) Malwords, and an arsenal of Secondary (Tier-2) Malwords.
Primary Malwords are general, not-up-for-debate terms that are relentlessly drummed into public discourse at median frequencies of at least 500 WPM. Primaries set the table, define the objective, establish mood. WAR, PANDEMIC, RUSSIA, UKRAINE are good examples of Primaries.
Secondary Malwords are highly targeted, shaming, hate speech-level terms directed at specific populations for dehumanizing and removing them from the public square. Secondaries range between 10-100 WPM, have relatively short lives, but are highly effective. Examples of secondaries include MANDATE, OMICRON, DELTA VARIANT, and UNVACCINATED.
In the chart above, we've broken out Pandemic Malword Numbers by Total, Primary, and Secondary components. Primaries hold their own through the 2020 Election, then decline steadily, leaving Totals increasingly dependent on volatile Secondaries such as DELTA VARIANT and OMICRON.
We've also benchmarked Pandemic Malwords against Japanese Mass Incarceration, a malwords campaign that led to imprisonment of America's ethnic Japanese population following the attack on Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941.
It's tempting to view the pandemic—an attack by rising Asian power China— as a dirty bomb with the immediate goal to destroy the US economy, and with the long-term objective to replace Trump with obedient idiot Joe Biden, who would drive America off a cliff and usher in Sino-centric world order via nuclear conflict.
And many have been tempted to view Pearl Harbor-- an attack by the rising Asian nation of its time--as immediate pretext for incarceration of 120,000 US citizens based on ethnicity, AND the long-term justification for incinerating half a million more of their kinsmen, ushering in the American world order under the mushroom cloud.
In neither case do we have the smoking gun from Skull and Bones to prove these hypotheses. And if we did it would be dismissed by Bonesmen on the Sunday talk shows as Russian disinformation.
Connecting Malwords and Misdeeds
But we have the malwords, the misdeeds that followed, and their correlation through something called Weibull Analysis.
Take the following chart for ENEMY ALIEN + JAP, a colocated secondary malword combination that helped whip up hostility against Japanese ethnic populations in 1942-43.
Now take this secondary Pandemic malword--LOCKDOWNS.
The charts for two secondaries, though eighty years apart, are virtually identical.
And they are virtually identical in another regard: they follow the same Weibull probability distribution that predicts increasing failure rates over time for both malwords.
Weibull distributions are used to assess product reliability, and create time-to-failure models for systems and parts, across a wide range of data from many fields, including biology, economics, engineering sciences, and hydrology.
A Weibull distribution relies on two critical parameters: beta, or the shape factor, and lambda, which is the scale factor.
Beta parameters signify shape as follows:
Beta < 1 indicating that the failure rate decreases over time, meaning there is significant “infant mortality” to the product or property being measured, as defective items are weeded out of the population.
Beta = 1 indicates that the failure rate is constant over time, suggesting random external events are the cause of failure.
Beta > 1 indicates that the failure rate increases over time, usually due to an an aging process as parts wear out or components break down.
The following chart shows different values for beta on a Weibull distribution:
Lamba parameter determines length, but a very specific length-- the point on the x-axis where the curve enters end-of-life (EOL) phase, which is the point at which 63.2% of units in the field have failed. On a chart, that is the point at which the distribution curve begins to return decreasing values on its ordinate (y-axis).
While malwords are not tangible products that break down, they do have lifecycles and are replaced not just because they fail, but just as often because they succeed. At which point they need to be retired like a champion racehorse, to let a new generation of contenders take the field.
Weibull distributions can be visually plotted to follow the malword lifecycle, such as with the example below (beta = 2, lambda = 6):
But far more revealing than visually matching the shapes is mathematically matching the areas. To do that, find the x-axis point on the ENEMY ALIENS graph at which 63.2% of the data is accounted for. A simple area calculation fixes this at August, 1942. Then plot a Weibull curve where 63.2% of its area is covered at August, 1942, and get the following:
We now have two curves, equal in area and with a beta parameter of 3.17, indicating increasing failure rate over time, and a lambda of 10.6, meaning that EOL begins ten and a half months into the cycle, on August, 1942. In addition, we see an ascending intersect in April 1942, and a descending intersect in February 1943 for the two vectors.
While significance of these dates is largely in the eye of the interpreter, they mark important milestone months in the Japanese Mass Incarceration saga.
April, 1942: Mandatory removal of Japanese-Americans to concentration camps in US interior began operations at scale, under army auspices.
August, 1942: US Army announced removal of Japanese-Americans from West Coast states had been completed.
February, 1943: US Court of Appeals dismissed a suit brought by State of California surrogates to strip Japanese-Americans of US citizenship.
Applying the same analysis to not-so-distant cousin LOCKDOWN gives us equal-area vectors that share a beta of 3.12 for increasing failure rates, and a lambda of 11.8 pointing to an EOL entry almost one year into the cycle late Dec 2020-Jan 2021.
While the events of Dec 2020-Jan 2021 are burned into memory, don't miss that ascending intersect at July 2020, which marks the epicenter of the pandemic crisis-- 3 million total infections in the US, record business failures, record suicides, record insurance losses, and the George Floyd riots.
And by the time of we reached descending intersect in May, 2021, countries were either lifting the lockdowns or struggling to keep them in place against increasingly restive populations. By end of year, despite record infection rates from omicron, people had finally had enough.
Malwords Have Consequences
Malwords have consequences and lifecycles. Lifecycles in the form of expiration dates past which there are consequences, sometimes deadly ones, as witnessed by the violent anti-lockdown protests around the world in Jan 2022.
Weibull analysis can shed light at an aggregate level as well:
Pandemic Malwords Total is not a malword per se, but a composite of malwords--kind of like a mutual fund-- the sum total of a succession of Beta > 1.0 primaries and secondaries that hit peak WPM 90 days in, then are put out to pasture in six months.
This shows expresses in actual and Weibull equal-area vectors with an elongated beta (3.93) and lambda (17.95), giving us:
Ascending intersect at Oct 2020, from which both vectors run parallel from 2020 Election through Jan 6,
EOL entry in June 2021, as anti-lockdown sentiment reaches fever pitch, in spite of warnings of Delta Variant
Descending intersect in November 2021, when Biden announced vaccine mandates for all companies with over 100 employees
But the Global Pandemic's linguistic secret of success is found in the unique properties of a malword hiding in plain sight.
Of all the primary heavyweight-class Pandemic malwords, COVID is the only term with Beta < 1.0 (0.92), an extremely early ascending intersect, a 13-month EOL, and no descending intersect yet in sight.
For the past two years, COVID has singlehandedly held up Pandemic malword WPMs through choppy secondary cycles until COVID itself collapsed in early 2022, taking the Pandemic and its narrative down with it.
But would you call that a failure? Not when you let the results speak for themselves.
Sure, the Japanese Mass Incarceration was a massive human rights and due process violation that was ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court. But that did nothing reverse the sub-humanizing of the Japanese as a people, or the anesthetizing of the American conscience against what was about to take place—instantaneous, in place incineration of civilian populations—so that remorse, when finally felt, would only happen long after primary objective was complete: US ascension to superpower status.
And yes, Covid numbers have collapsed, but look at what they have taken with them-- The US has been fiscally, economically, militarily, electorally and morally eviscerated, on the brink of a nuclear war that will leave its people destitute, starving, and America prostrate to the will of the globalist overlords.
Primary objective of pandemic achieved. Put that stud out to pasture!
Raging Weibull
Weibull analysis also helps explain why the Left is always "changing the subject" and "on to the next”—because the vast majority of their malwords have betas greater than 1.0, meaning shorter value lifecycles, narrower opportunity windows, and increased risk of failure over time.
So in this case -- whether they know it or not-- they are following the science, and it is paying off.
This is how information warfare works. Cease raging against the machine. Find a way to break it.
Because the monopoly of globalist forces and their Woke surrogates in government, education, media, business, tech, and pharma is creating a systemic, closed-loop, algorithmic cycle for atrocity, that is rapidly sealing off traditional avenues of opposition such as:
Resistance through armed uprising or paralyzing levels of civil disobedience,
Parallel structures that hollow out the established order from within
Killer apps that jam up the current propaganda model
Next-generation technologies that render current delivery modes obsolete
Prospects of direct confrontation on any of these fronts are not promising:
Option #1 US expertise in instigating Color Revolution abroad has left us vulnerable to it at home. Citizens feel powerless to stand up to dictators on their own soil, despite being better armed than any other people on earth.
Option #2 requires charismatic leadership which does not exist in America outside of Trump, who is essentially semi-retired. The Republican Party that has lost its activist edge on the golf course. The clergy largely take their orders from St. Anthony Fauci and not from the Word of God.
Option #3 feature overlap of alternate information delivery methods (Gettr, Gab, MeWe, Truth, Rumble, MXM, etc) work to fracture a smaller audience while creating interlock for major players.
Option 4 is resource intensive, where Woke capital, corporations, and education have a stranglehold on banking, high-tech, and R&D required.
This is not to say that all hope is lost, but America is under an industrial-strength onslaught to replace a US-centric world order with a Sino-centric world order, run through Eurocrat proxies. Failing to admit that reality is to live in a fairy tale.
Like believing the only thing we can do about it now is to wait until November to vote in an election that a) will somehow take place, b) will somehow not be stolen, because c) somehow enraged citizens will show up at the polls in numbers that make it impossible to cheat.
Somehow, that is not a strategy.
We need a lot more than some how. We need some thing that is going to work today, jam up the gears today, and not somehow come riding to the rescue in November.
Here are some ideas to try out for size:
Use what you have control of-- We had the truckers and the final leg of the supply chain-- until their attention whores turned protest into performance art over who had the longest caravan. Are we up for a targeted truckers strike? How about a targeted plumber's strike? Bottom line: we are not China yet. They cannot force us to work at gunpoint. We can make them feel our misery.
Use what they are afraid of--Domestic War Crimes. Biden fears being removed from power and tried as a war criminal—for waging domestic war on the American people. If he didn't think that was something to fear, why would he threaten to try Putin for war crimes?
Because if we have domestic terrorists, we must also have domestic war criminals.
The concept is still to be codified into law, but that’s what makes Domestic War Crimes a great litmus test. Ask the candidates: who are you going after for waging war on the American people under guise of a public health emergency, and have you put them on notice? Hunter? Fauci? Zuckerberg? Walensky? McConnell? Garland? Wray? Abrams? Elias? Catholic Charities? Soros DA's? The list is endless.
We already have a precedent in the War Room Senate Candidate's Litmus Test—Are you for or against Mitch McConnell as Senate leader?
Candidates who cannot start standing up for their constituents now and putting fear into tyrants now are not people we can depend on standing up for us next January.
Fear throws you off balance now, forcing errors when certain victory is in the bag.
Just ask Bill Buckner.
Use what works for others. The biggest reason cybercrime is so lucrative is because the good guys do not talk among themselves, while the bad guys do. Build activist communities by reaching out to natural allies against globalism. Blue collar labor unions, suburban moms, first generation immigrants, Latino and African-American working class. There's an old Israeli saying: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
Re-Learning the Art of the Jailbreak
We've been a free people for almost 250 years, maybe for a little to long, because we’ve clearly forgotten how to break out of jail.
Jailbreaks involve treachery, stealth, force, even violence. Your jailers are not going to swoon to your superior logic and set you free. You are going to have take back your freedom from them. Which means attacking and overpowering them where they are weakest and most vulnerable, and decommissioning them— temporarily if they surrender, permanently if they attempt to harm you.
Don't like those options? Prefer to "have a conversation" and reason your way out? Go back to solitary confinement and keep praying for another election that somehow doesn’t get stolen. You may be there for a while.
Harvey Oxenhorn is a cybersecurity consultant, and author of the upcoming book, The Atrocity Algorithm: How the Media Became the Enemy of the People. Follow him on Gettr, Gab, and MeWe @HarveyOxenhorn